Good morning. As the war in Ukraine continues, Russian oil continues to move, but it’s heading to different, further destinations to link up with new buyers. Today we’re breaking down what to know.
Let’s dive in.
1. Sanctions are forcing Russia to shake up its oil trade. President Putin told top officials this week that Russia will begin seeking new customers and markets for oil, as its traditional buyers have slowed purchases.
Nations have been weaning off Russian energy since the war in Ukraine began. S&P Global highlighted that a “trade rupture” between Russia and Germany could trigger a financial shock to the German economy, and the US urged India Tuesday not to ramp up imports from Russia.
Moving forward, Russia will be exploring new ways to raise fuel consumption domestically and abroad. This month, Russia’s been able to maintain a steady outflow of oil and gas cargoes, but its shipments are traveling much longer distances to reach buyers.
But some markets in Asia and the Mediterranean have continued to accept Russian oil. Earlier this week, a top Ukraine official called for the top energy traders to stop funding Russia’s war machine via the oil trade.
“The fact is that traders are trading and they are helping Russia to receive this blood money,” an advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, told the Financial Times.
Meanwhile, OPEC warned it wouldn’t be able to replace Russian oil if supply is cut off.
In other news:
2. Global shares are heading higher. Investors have shrugged off some of the concern about inflation, while oil is drifting lower after a large US stock-build. Here’s what’s happening on the markets.
3. Earnings on deck: Morgan Stanley, Rite Aid, US Bancorp, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, all reporting.
4. RBC shared why a certain batch of tech companies are most likely to be bought by competitors and private equity as tech M&A heats up. With already $13 billion in deals announced this week, two RBC analysts shared what deals could be next in the pipeline. These are the 16 names on their radar.
5. The Fed is going to have to curb economic activity to bring down soaring inflation, according to James Bullard. The St. Louis Fed President said the ability for neutral interest rates to cool scorching inflation is “fantasy” thinking. In March, he voted for a rate hike of 50 basis points while his colleagues opted for a smaller increase.
6. The US sentenced a crypto expert to 5 years in prison after he gave a blockchain presentation in North Korea. Virgil Griffith pleaded guilty to conspiring to violate US law, and the 39-year-old’s sentence included a $100,000 fine. The researcher gave a presentation on crypto in Pyongyang in 2019 — even though the US State Department had denied him permission to attend.
7. Selling pressure in the stock market could ease next week. That’s according to Fundstrat, which said that selling could let up after investors finish paying off their taxes on big 2021 gains. “Our work shows that raising funds for ‘capital gains’ is worse in years when S&P 500 gains were strong,” the firm said.
8. Goldman Sachs named 45 stocks that are the most isolated from the international supply chain crisis caused by geopolitical tensions and COVID-19 lockdowns. Pressure continues to mount on global businesses as war in Ukraine rages on — but the bank said firms that brought operations back to the US are set to make gains.
9. The CIO of the SARK ETF that delivers the inverse returns of Cathie Wood’s flagship fund explained why he’s planning on launching 18 more ETFs. One of those funds is meant to double the daily returns of ARKK, and another is meant to short bitcoin futures. Plus, he shared why his ideas could create a tax-loss harvesting strategy.
10. A lot of Americans moved during the pandemic. Census Bureau data showed that about two-thirds of US counties saw positive net domestic migration. See which places in each state saw the biggest surge in new residents.